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Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy

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  • Matteo Cacciatore

    (HEC Montreal)

Abstract

We study the effects of trade integration for the conduct of monetary policy in a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous producer entry, and labor market frictions. The model reproduces important empirical regularities related to international trade, namely synchronization of business cycles across trading partners and reallocation of market shares across producers. Three key results emerge. First, when trade linkages are weak, the optimal policy is inward-looking but requires significant departures from price stability both in the long run and over the business cycle. Second, as trade integration reallocates market share toward more productive firms, the need of positive inflation to correct long-run distortions is reduced. Third, increased business cycle synchronization implies that country-specific shocks have more global consequences. Welfare gains from cooperation are small relative to optimal non-cooperative policy, but sizable relative to historical Federal Reserve behavior. The constrained efficient allocation generated by optimal cooperative policy can still be achieved by appropriately designed inward-looking policy rules. However, sub-optimal (historical) policy implies inefficient fluctuations in cross-country demands that result in large welfare costs when trade linkages are strong.

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  • Matteo Cacciatore, 2013. "Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy," 2013 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:724
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mileva, Mariya, 2016. "Inter-industry trade and business cycle dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 2041, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-137.
    4. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Ma, Xiaofei, 2017. "Competitive tax reforms in a monetary union with endogenous entry and tradability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 126-143.
    5. Fabio Ghironi, 2018. "Macro needs micro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 195-218.
    6. Dogan, Aydan & Hjortsoe, Ida, 2020. "Understanding US export dynamics: does modelling the extensive margin of exports help?," Bank of England working papers 859, Bank of England.
    7. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of euro area market reforms," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 555-581.
    8. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2019. "Monopoly Power and Endogenous Product Variety: Distortions and Remedies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 140-174, October.
    9. Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Ali Sezin Ozdemir, 2019. "The role of asymmetry in the interplay between internal and external factors: Empirical evidence from the US, Brazil, Canada and Mexico," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 55-75.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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