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Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement

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  • Ng, Eric C.Y.

Abstract

International trade increasingly involves trade in goods being produced in fragmentation arrangements across countries, with each country specializing in different stages of a production sequence. This paper examines empirically whether pairs of countries with more bilateral production fragmentation arrangements tend to have more correlated business cycles. Using cross-country data from 30 countries, we find that bilateral production fragmentation has a positive effect while the standard bilateral trade intensity indicator has a negative impact on business-cycle comovement. We also find that the positive effect of trade in complements (captured by bilateral production fragmentation) dominates the negative effect of trade in substitutes (explained by bilateral trade intensity), resulting in an overall positive impact of trade. Hence, bilateral production fragmentation plays a key role underlying the positive response of business-cycle comovement to increases in trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ng, Eric C.Y., 2010. "Production fragmentation and business-cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:82:y:2010:i:1:p:1-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Menzie Chinn, 2014. "Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia," Chapters,in: Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 8, pages 249-286 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:535-544 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    4. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    5. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    6. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2011. "The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 441-459.
    7. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    9. Francois de Soyres, 2016. "Trade and Interdependence in International Networks," 2016 Meeting Papers 157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 39-83, October.
    11. Selover, David D. & Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2015. "Examining industrial interdependence between Japan and South Korea: A FAVAR approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 67-87.
    12. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    13. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    14. Alina Carare & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the ‘Great Moderation’?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 69-97, April.
    15. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, February.
    16. repec:sls:ipmsls:v:32:y:2017:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2012. "Is East Asia's Economic Fate Chained to the West?," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-11, CIRANO.
    18. Ďurčová, Júlia & Mirdala, Rajmund, 2016. "Offshoring Intensities and Skill Upgrading of Employment in the Slovak Republic," MPRA Paper 79921, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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