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Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence

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  • Hsu, Chih-Chiang
  • Wu, Jyun-Yi
  • Yau, Ruey

Abstract

The previous literature has largely overlooked the possible channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) might influence business cycle synchronization. In this study we analyze the linkages that exist among FDI, trade and industrial dissimilarity in relation to business cycle co-movements using a panel data set taken from 77 pairs of developed countries. The error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS) estimates from a simultaneous equations model with panel data are shown to be superior to the estimates obtained from single equation models or simultaneous equations models with cross-sectional data. Our results indicate that FDI serves as a channel of international business cycle transmission that is equally important as the channels of trade and monetary policy. On the contrary, industrial dissimilarity is identified as having an indirect impact on the business cycle correlation through trade and FDI. Furthermore, our findings suggest that in our sample FDI is of the horizontal type and tends to substitute for trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:770-783
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.06.001
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    2. Doytch, Nadia, 2015. "Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-33.
    3. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    4. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2019. "Trade, Industrial Dissimilarity, FDI and Business Cycle Co-movements: EC3SLS Evidence from Eurozone Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 327-359, August.
    5. Kazemi, Morteza & Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Naseeem, N.A.M, 2018. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Output: Evidence from East Asian Economies," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 297-309.
    6. Claudia Busl & Marcus Kappler, 2013. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Synchronise Business Cycles? Results from a Panel Approach. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 23," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46884, April.
    7. Doytch, Nadia, 2021. "Do FDI inflows to Eastern Europe and Central Asia respond to the business cycle? A sector level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    8. Marcel Ševela, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment Stock and Business Cycle Synchronization: the Case of Central European Economies," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 2117-2122.
    9. Michael Sigmund, 2021. "Assessing macro-prudential policies: the case of FX lending," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 316-359, April.
    10. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:668-692 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Menno, Dominik, 2014. "Multinational Firms and Business Cycle Transmission," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100320, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Bayramov, Vugar & Rustamli, Nabi & Abbas, Gulnara, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 92-109.
    13. Dimitrios Asteriou & Argiro Moudatsou, 2015. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU: The Role of Bilateral Trade and FDI," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 196-207, February.
    14. Peter Egger & Marko Koethenbuerger, 2016. "Hosting multinationals: Economic and fiscal implications," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(01), pages 45-69, February.
    15. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    16. Wanping Yang & Bingyu Zhao, 2021. "The Transmission Mechanism of China-Japan Economic Co-Movement and Stabilizing Measures for China’s Economy," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    17. Sebastian Florian Enea & Silvia Palaºcã, 2012. "Globalization Versus Segregation - Business Cycles Synchronization In Europe," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 668-692, December.
    18. Fries, Claudia & Kappler, Marcus, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment synchronise business cycles? Results from a panel approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Marco Pangallo, 2020. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Papers 2002.06555, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    20. Lance Kent, 2014. "Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    21. Marco Pangallo, 2023. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," LEM Papers Series 2023/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle co-movements; Foreign direct investment; Trade; Industrial dissimilarity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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