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Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence

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  • Hsu, Chih-Chiang
  • Wu, Jyun-Yi
  • Yau, Ruey

Abstract

The previous literature has largely overlooked the possible channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) might influence business cycle synchronization. In this study we analyze the linkages that exist among FDI, trade and industrial dissimilarity in relation to business cycle co-movements using a panel data set taken from 77 pairs of developed countries. The error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS) estimates from a simultaneous equations model with panel data are shown to be superior to the estimates obtained from single equation models or simultaneous equations models with cross-sectional data. Our results indicate that FDI serves as a channel of international business cycle transmission that is equally important as the channels of trade and monetary policy. On the contrary, industrial dissimilarity is identified as having an indirect impact on the business cycle correlation through trade and FDI. Furthermore, our findings suggest that in our sample FDI is of the horizontal type and tends to substitute for trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:4:p:770-783
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörn Kleinert & Julien Martin & Farid Toubal, 2015. "The Few Leading the Many: Foreign Affiliates and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 134-159, October.
    2. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2012:v:4:p:668-692 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sebastian Florian Enea & Silvia Palaºcã, 2012. "Globalization Versus Segregation - Business Cycles Synchronization In Europe," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(4), pages 668-692, December.
    4. Peter Egger & Marko Koethenbuerger, 2016. "Hosting multinationals: Economic and fiscal implications," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(01), pages 45-69, February.
    5. Doytch, Nadia, 2015. "Sectoral FDI cycles in South and East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-33.
    6. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    7. Lance Kent, 2014. "Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    8. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    9. Claudia Busl & Marcus Kappler, 2013. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Synchronise Business Cycles? Results from a Panel Approach," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 23, WWWforEurope.
    10. Menno, Dominik, 2014. "Multinational Firms and Business Cycle Transmission," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100320, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle co-movements; Foreign direct investment; Trade; Industrial dissimilarity;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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