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Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific

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  • Mark Crosby

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

In this paper business cycle correlations between countries in the Asia-Pacific region are examined. A number of authors have suggested that trade intensity between pairs of countries increases business cycle synchronisation, though theoretically it is not clear that this should be the case. In this paper trade intensity and a number of other macroeconomic and structural variables are used to try and explain synchronisation. Our findings suggest that trade does not explain correlations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Crosby, 2003. "Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific," Working Papers 042003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:042003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
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    6. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    8. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    9. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 219-227, December.
    2. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
    3. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 671, European Central Bank.
    5. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 351-365, January.
    6. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2011. "The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 441-459.
    7. Selover, David D. & Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2015. "Examining industrial interdependence between Japan and South Korea: A FAVAR approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 67-87.
    8. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-33.
    9. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    10. Rana, Pradumna B., 2006. "Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 2, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Simeon Coleman, 2011. "Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa," Working Papers 2011/01, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
    12. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
    14. Ghassan Dibeh, 2005. "A Kaleckian model of business cycle synchronization," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 253-267.
    15. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:1358914 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nabil Alimi, 2015. "The Effect of Trade, Specialization and Financial Integration on Business Cycles Synchronization in Some Mediterranean Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 110-118, January.
    17. Mark Crosby & Philip Bodman, 2005. "When the US Sneezes, Do We Need to Catch a Cold? Historical and Future Linkages between the Australian and US Business Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Sethapramote, Yuthana, 2015. "Synchronization of business cycles and economic policy linkages in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 126-136.
    19. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:10:p:2097-2124 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kumakura, Masanaga, 2006. "Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 622-645, October.
    21. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
    22. Kamel GARFA, 2013. "Couplage Ou Découplage Des Cycles Économiques Des Mena : Une Approche En Termes De Modèle A Facteurs Dynamiques," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 225-247.
    23. Rana, Pradumna B., 2007. "Economic integration and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 711-725, October.
    24. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:03:n:s0217590818400064 is not listed on IDEAS

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