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The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan

  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

This paper studies the intranational business cycle -that is the set of regional (prefecture) business cycles- in Japan. One reason for choosing to examine the Japanese case is that long time series and relatively detailed data are available. A Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to identify the cycles in annual data from 1955 to 1995 and bilateral cross-correlation coefficients are calculated for all the pairs of prefectures. Comparisons are made with similar sets of bilateral cross correlation coefficients calculated for the States of the US and for the member countries of a "synthetic Euro Area". The paper then turns to an econometric explanation of the cross-correlation coefficients (using Fisher's z-transform), in a panel data GMM estimation framework. An augmented gravity model provides the basic model for the investigation, whilst the richness of the data base also allows for additional models to be represented.

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File URL: http://hi-stat.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2007/pdf/D07-234.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number d07-234.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d07-234
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  3. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Artis, Michael J & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "The Home Bias and Capital Income Flows between Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
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  17. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
  18. Keith Head & John Ries & Deborah Swenson, 1994. "Agglomeration Benefits and Location Choice: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investment in the United States," NBER Working Papers 4767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0208, Banco de Espa�a.
  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  21. Iwamoto, Yasushi & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Do Borders Matter? Evidence from Japanese Regional Net Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 241-69, February.
  22. William C. Gruben & Jahyeong Koo & Eric Millis, 2002. "How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization ?," Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  23. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
  24. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
  25. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  26. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-97, December.
  27. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  28. Etsuro Shioji, 2004. "Initial Values and Income Convergence: Do "The Poor Stay Poor"?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 444-446, February.
  29. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
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