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The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the “UK idiosyncrasy” they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.

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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 111.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:111
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  1. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Salvador BARROS & Marius BRÜLHART & Robert J.R. ELLIOTT & Marianne SENSIER, 2001. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  3. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
  4. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  6. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Paper Series 221, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  7. M Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 17, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  8. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Gregory D. Hess & Kwanho Shin, 1995. "Intranational business cycles in the United States," Research Working Paper 95-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  10. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
  11. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
  12. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  13. repec:bla:restud:v:65:y:1998:i:3:p:453-73 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Pedroni, Peter & Yao, James Yudong, 2006. "Regional income divergence in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 294-315, April.
  15. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's get real: a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10147, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  16. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
  17. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 453-473.
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