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Dating the Business Cycle in Britain

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  • Michael Artis

    (EUI, Florence, University of Manchester and CEPR)

Abstract

The NIESR’s monthly GDP series is an innovative feature; most GDP estimates are published at an annual, or quarterly frequency at best. For purposes of dating the business cycle the availability of this series is an asset, unexploited until this paper. The paper applies a version of the standard business (or ‘classical’) cycle dating algorithm to the data, after light smoothing to remove outliers. Three classical cycles are detected in the period between the early 1970s and 2002, with turning points which are close to (but usually precede) classical cycle dating which does not benefit from the availability of monthly GDP, and instead relies on a ‘coincident’ indicator methodology. In addition the turning points of a deviation cycle are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:182:y:2002:i:1:p:90-95
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-279, April.
    4. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the business cycle: A modified Hodrick-Prescott filter," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 175-206.
    8. Osborn, Denise R, 1995. "Moving Average Detrending and the Analysis of Business Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 547-558, November.
    9. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    10. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 111, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    3. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
    4. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
    5. Keiko Honjo, 2007. "The Golden Rule and the Economic Cycles," IMF Working Papers 07/199, International Monetary Fund.
    6. I. Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & P.G.A. Howells, 2012. "Income velocity and non-GDP transactions in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 97-110, March.
    7. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.

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