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Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies

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  • Anna Piretti
  • Charles St-Arnaud

Abstract

The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. Each country block features an aggregate IS curve, a forward-looking Phillips curve, and an estimated forward-looking monetary policy reaction function. Potential output is estimated by means of a Hodrick-Prescott filter, conditioned by an equilibrium path generated by a structural vector autoregression (Rennison 2003 and Gosselin and Lalonde 2002). The Phillips curve is specified in terms of the output gap, and inflation dynamics are described by the polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) approach, as in Kozicki and Tinsley (2002). The model delivers relatively accurate projections at a variety of forecast horizons and provides a useful tool for policy analysis. The authors' simulation results suggest that output and inflation exhibit a greater degree of persistence to shocks in the euro area than in the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Partha Chatterjee & Malik Shukayev, 2006. "Are Average Growth Rate and Volatility Related?," Staff Working Papers 06-24, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Business fluctuations and cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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