IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/nierev/v182y2002ip90-95_9.html

Dating the Business Cycle in Britain

Author

Listed:
  • Artis, Michael

Abstract

The NIESR's monthly GDP series is an innovative feature; most GDP estimates are published at an annual, or quarterly frequency at best. For purposes of dating the business cycle the availability of this series is an asset, unexploited until this paper. The paper applies a version of the standard business (or ‘classical’) cycle dating algorithm to the data, after light smoothing to remove outliers. Three classical cycles are detected in the period between the early 1970s and 2002, with turning points which are close to (but usually precede) classical cycle dating which does not benefit from the availability of monthly GDP, and instead relies on a ‘coincident’ indicator methodology. In addition the turning points of a deviation cycle are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Artis, Michael, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182, pages 90-95, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:182:y:2002:i::p:90-95_9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0027950100009789/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    3. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
    4. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    5. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
    6. I. Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & P.G.A. Howells, 2012. "Income velocity and non-GDP transactions in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 97-110, March.
    7. Ms. Keiko Honjo, 2007. "The Golden Rule and the Economic Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2007/199, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    9. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 111, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2005. "Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 501-515, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:182:y:2002:i::p:90-95_9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.