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The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

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  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

Abstract

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors toderive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of thecycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles forJapan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive andefforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP are not very successfulowing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regionalcycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables suchas distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explainingthe variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations inrelation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the "UKidiosyncrasy" they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2009. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," SERC Discussion Papers 0019, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Globalization and business cycle transmission," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 91-99, August.
    2. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    3. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    4. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    intranational business cycle; regional business cycles; income convergence; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Euro-sympathy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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