Business Cycle, Currency and Trade, Revisited
This paper reports estimates based on long-run data sets for GDP and trade, with three subsamples chosen to reflect the first globalization period, the "bloc economy" period and the second globalization period. The business cycle is identified as the series of deviates from a Hodrick-Prescott filtered trend, and turning points are identified. Cross-correlations of the cyclical deviates are calculated for all the pairs of the 21 countries examined. It is apparent from casual inspection that the business cycle characteristics and the pattern of crosscorrelations in the bloc economy period are different from those found for the two globalization periods whilst there is less difference between the two globalization periods. Estimation is undertaken of equations to explain the pattern of cross correlations in terms of trade and currency union membership. A dummy for the countries that belong to the Eurozone is found to be significant for the period of the first globalization, that is, well before any manifestation of a common Euro-currency is available. By contrast, Asian business cycle co-movement cannot be found.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-15-45, Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345|
Web page: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008.
"Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
110, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Globalization and business cycle transmission," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 91-99, August.
- Artis, Michael J & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 7041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," Discussion Paper Series 232, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Toshihiro Okubo, 2010.
"Shake Hands or Shake Apart? International Relationship of Japan with Global Blocs,"
Discussion Paper Series
DP2010-06, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Shake Hands or Shake Apart? International Relationship of Japan with Global Blocs," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 35-64.
- Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008.
"Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
- Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries - a Re-examination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1546, CESifo Group Munich.
- Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin, 1999. "Two Waves of Globalisation: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences," NBER Working Papers 6904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001.
"On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
479, CESifo Group Munich.
- Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Ravn, Morten O & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1999. "Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hunderd Years Ago?," NBER Working Papers 7195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Working Papers 0108, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011.
"Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach,"
Discussion Paper Series
DP2011-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?—A Panel Data Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 318-332, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2011-019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Global COE Program Office)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.