Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?—A Panel Data Approach
This paper re-estimates the correlation between trade and business cycle synchronization. Different from other previous studies, we employ long-run GDP and trade data and use the GDP cross-correlation index a la Cerqueira and Martins (2009) rather than over-time cross-correlations. We find a positive impact of trade on business cycle synchronization particularly in the current wave of globalization, although the inter-war period sees negative impacts. The current economic integration and currency unions also positively affect business cycle synchronization.
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Volume (Year): 79 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
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