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Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Artis

    (Swansea University, UK)

  • Toshihiro Okubo

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

This paper re-estimates the correlation between trade and business cycle synchronization. Different from other previous studies, we employ long-run GDP and trade data and use the GDP cross-correlation index a la Cerqueira and Martins (2009) rather than over-time cross-correlations. We find a positive impact of trade on business cycle synchronization particularly in the current wave of globalization, although the inter-war period sees negative impacts. The current economic integration and currency unions also positively affect business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2011-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Globalization and business cycle transmission," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 91-99, August.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    7. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    8. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    9. Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 160-180, February.
    10. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    11. William C. Gruben & Jahyeong Koo & Eric Millis, 2002. "How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization ?," Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Cerqueira, Pedro André & Martins, Rodrigo, 2009. "Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 106-108, February.
    13. Kyoji Fukao & Debin Ma & Tangjun Yuan, 2007. "Real Gdp In Pre‐War East Asia: A 1934–36 Benchmark Purchasing Power Parity Comparison With The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(3), pages 503-537, September.
    14. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle synchronization; Trade; Panel approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

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