IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v63y2011i1p111-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The intranational business cycle in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Artis
  • Toshihiro Okubo

Abstract

This paper studies the intranational business cycle--that is the set of regional (prefectural) business cycles--in Japan. One reason for choosing to examine the Japanese case is that long time series of relatively detailed data are available. A Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to identify cycles in annual data from 1955 to 1995 and bilateral cross-correlations of prefectural GDPs are calculated for all pairs of prefectures, in our results we find fairly high cross-correlations. The paper then turns to an econometric explanation of the cross-correlation coefficients in the augmented gravity model framework. Two prefectures with similar GDPs and a shorter distance between them lead to business cycle synchronization whilst those with larger regional gaps in factor endowments (capital, labour, and human capital) result in more idiosyncratic business cycle. Copyright 2011 Oxford University Press 2010 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "The intranational business cycle in Japan," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 111-133, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:63:y:2011:i:1:p:111-133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpq022
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:econom:v:67:y:2000:i:267:p:347-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "The Diffusion of Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 469-529.
    3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    5. van Wincoop, Eric, 1995. "Regional risksharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1545-1567, October.
    6. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    8. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 101, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Artis, Michael & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "The Home Bias and Capital Income Flows between Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Iwamoto, Yasushi & van Wincoop, Eric, 2000. "Do Borders Matter? Evidence from Japanese Regional Net Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 241-269, February.
    11. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
    12. William C. Gruben & Jahyeong Koo & Eric Millis, 2002. "How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization ?," Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    14. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
    15. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
    16. Kenen, Peter B., 2000. "Currency areas, policy domains, and the institutionalization of fixed exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
    18. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    19. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    20. David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836.
    21. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
    22. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2004. "The border effect in the Japanese market: A Gravity Model analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11, March.
    23. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
    24. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    25. Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
    26. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    28. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.
    29. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    30. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    31. Fujita, Masahisa & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 1997. "Regional growth in postwar Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 643-670, November.
    32. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    33. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles," Working Papers 2011_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. repec:kob:wpaper:1624 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hazem Krichene & Abhijit Chakraborty & Hiroyasu Inoue & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2017. "Business cycles’ correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2014. "A note on risk sharing against idiosyncratic shocks and geographic mobility in Japan," MPRA Paper 54886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 583, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    7. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2017. "Local Public Investment and Regional Business Cycle Fluctuations in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 402-410.
    8. Makoto Muto & Tamotsu Onozaki & Yoshitaka Saiki, 2023. "Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(30), pages 3472-3486, June.
    9. Masaru Inaba & Keisuke Otsu, 2016. "Regional Business Cycle and Growth Features of Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1005, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Magrini Stefano & Gerolimetto Margherita & Duran Hasan Engin, 2013. "Business cycle dynamics across the US states," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 795-822, April.
    11. Funashima, Yoshito & Horiba, Isao & Miyahara, Shoichi, 2015. "Local Government Investments and Ineffectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus during Japan's Lost Decades," MPRA Paper 61333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    13. Mejía-Reyes, Pablo & Rendón-Rojas, Liliana & Vergara-González, Reyna & Aroca, Patricio, 2018. "International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 278-288.
    14. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2018. "Interactions between regional public and private investment: evidence from Japanese prefectures," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 195-211, January.
    15. López, María del Carmen Delgado & Fonseca-Zendejas, Alejandro Steven, 2023. "Analysis of the intersectoral synchronization of the Mexican economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 225-235.
    16. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    17. Asako, Kazumi & Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko, 2014. "An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 603, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Gómez-Zaldívar, Manuel & Garcia-Barragan, Fernando, 2022. "Trade Integration and Intra-national Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico’s States from 1980 to 2019," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 216-234.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2009. "Globalization and business cycle transmission," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 91-99, August.
    3. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249.
    4. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 111, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    6. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    7. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    8. Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 160-180, February.
    9. Zhang, Daowei & Li, Yanshu, 2009. "Forest endowment, logging restrictions, and China's wood products trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-53, March.
    10. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    11. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2010. "The UK intranational business cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 71-93.
    12. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    14. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "Efectos de la unión monetaria sobre el comercio internacional: elementos de juicio iniciales de la Unión Monetaria Europea," Research Department Publications 4340, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU [‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356.
    16. Schleer, Frauke & Sachs, Andreas, 2009. "Labour Market Institutions and Structural Reforms: A Source for Business Cycle Synchronisation?," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Benoit Dicharry & Lubica Stiblarova, 2023. "Positive externalities of the EU cohesion policy: Toward more synchronised CEE countries?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 485-508, July.
    18. António Caleiro, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu," Economics Working Papers 4_2011, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    19. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.
    20. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:63:y:2011:i:1:p:111-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.