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International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors

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  • Mejía-Reyes, Pablo
  • Rendón-Rojas, Liliana
  • Vergara-González, Reyna
  • Aroca, Patricio

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the explaining factors of the synchronization of the business cycles of the Mexican states and those of the US economy. The cycle indicator is obtained by de-trending the series of total formal employment (Mexican states) and nonfarm employment and industrial production (US). In general, our panel data model estimations suggest the existence of spatial autocorrelation and significant time-period fixed effects. Also, the estimates indicate a significant and positive effect of the ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product (GDP), which may be supplementing the impact of international trade (driven by the most internationally integrated states) and a negative effect of the ratio of remittances to GDP (driven by less integrated states). Finally, the evidence suggests that more similar productive structures yield more synchronized business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Mejía-Reyes, Pablo & Rendón-Rojas, Liliana & Vergara-González, Reyna & Aroca, Patricio, 2018. "International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 278-288.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:278-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.01.009
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    2. Miguel A. Mascarúa Lara, 2024. "Heterogeneous recessions and expansions in Mexican regions and sectors," Working Papers 2024-13, Banco de México.
    3. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    4. Erick Treviño Aguilar & Gilberto Calvillo Vives & Jeremy Heald, 2023. "A Network of two Markets, Correlations for Stocks in the S&P500 Index and Stocks Traded in the BMV," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-27, Julio - S.
    5. Leobardo de Jesús-Almonte & Roldán Andrés-Rosales & Yolanda Carbajal-Suárez, 2020. "Spatial analysis of manufacturing employment in Mexico, 1984-2013," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 84(3), pages 91-128, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth cycles; International synchronization; Sub-national business cycles; Mexican states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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