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International Business Cycle Comovement: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Jos Jansen
  • Ad Stokman

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and business cycle synchronization in the period 1982-2010 for eight industrialized countries. We find that more synchronized business cycles are associated with stronger FDI relations during 1995-2010, but that they are mainly associated with stronger trade linkages before 1995. More intensive FDI links are also associated with a greater vulnerability to lagged output spillovers from abroad, whereas trade links are not. Our findings suggest that FDI has become a separate channel through which economies may affect each other and that FDI stocks are now an essential aspect of economic interdependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jos Jansen & Ad Stokman, 2011. "International Business Cycle Comovement: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," DNB Working Papers 319, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Correa-López Mónica & de Blas Beatriz, 2012. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52, November.
    2. Carlo Gianelle & Letizia Montinari & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Interregional Trade, Specialization, and the Business Cycle: Policy Implications for the EMU," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, May.
    3. Mejía-Reyes, Pablo & Rendón-Rojas, Liliana & Vergara-González, Reyna & Aroca, Patricio, 2018. "International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles: Explaining factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 278-288.
    4. Marcel Ševela, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment Stock and Business Cycle Synchronization: the Case of Central European Economies," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 2117-2122.
    5. David Matesanz Gomez & Benno Torgler & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2013. "Measuring Global Economic Interdependence: A Hierarchical Network Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1632-1648, December.
    6. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    7. Pedro André Cerqueira, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Volatility Shifts," GEMF Working Papers 2014-19, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle synchronization; international linkages; trade; FDI; vertical integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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