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Business Cycles, Excess Volatility, and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey

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  • C. Emre Alper

Abstract

This paper analyzes business cycles in Mexico and Turkey and the results are compared to those for the United States. Excess volatility of real output as well as excess relative volatility of consumption in Mexico and Turkey is uncovered. Fiscal and monetary variables do not yield clear-cut patterns. Both the price levels and the inflation rates turn out to be moving countercyclically, suggesting the appropriateness of a supply-driven business cycle model rather than a demand-driven one for Mexico and Turkey. Capital inflows, especially long-term capital inflows, seem to matter, since they turn out to be strongly procyclical and lead the cycle by one quarter. This observation also emphasizes the relevance of a supply-driven model for the two countries.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Emre Alper, 2002. "Business Cycles, Excess Volatility, and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 25-58, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:38:y:2002:i:4:p:25-58
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