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Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions

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  • Ageliki Anagnostou
  • Ioannis Panteladis
  • Maria Tsiapa

Abstract

The present paper provides a comprehensive and consolidated analysis of the business cycle synchronicity between European regions and EU-14. Our study is conducted in three levels. First, we analyse regional business cycle synchronization with the EU-14 benchmark cycle, using real GDP in 200 NUTS II regions for a period of 30 years (1980–2009), detrended by Hodrick–Prescott filter. Secondly, we employ a VAR type methodology as a measurement devise to examine the dynamic relationship of the regional business cycles. Our main interest is to study the dynamics of business cycles as well as the pattern of the transmission mechanism to regions with different level of development. Finally, we empirically extend the research on identifying factors which might drive regional business cycle synchronization. In particular, we analyse the role of trade integration-cum- the sectoral patterns of specialisation as determinants of regional growth cycle correlations with the EU-14. Moreover, we draw attention to regional productivity as another possible determinant of business cycle synchronisation associated with the pattern of the spatial distribution of economic activities across regions. Panel three-stage least-squares estimation is implemented for the simultaneous equations between determinants and regional business cycles synchronisation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

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  • Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:42:y:2015:i:3:p:615-641
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-014-9268-9
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    6. Rafal Warzala, 2017. "Business Cycles Variability in Polish Regions in the Years 2000–2016," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 177-189.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Synchronization; 3SLS; Panel VAR; Impulse response function; EU 14 regions; R11; R12; E32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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