IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Do European business cycles look like one?

  • Camacho, Maximo
  • Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
  • Saiz, Lorena

This paper provides a comprehensive framework to analyze business cycle features other than synchronization. We use stationary bootstrap and model-based clustering methods to analyze similarities and differences among the European cycles. We find evidence that the length, deep and shape of cycles differ across European countries and that these differences are not decreasing over time. Finally, even though we find some correlation between business cycle synchronization and characteristics, there is important information in the characteristics that is not captured by the synchronization measures.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(07)00222-9
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 2165-2190

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:2165-2190
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  2. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  3. M. Dueker & K. Wesche, 1999. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity," Discussion Paper Serie B 448, University of Bonn, Germany.
  4. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  5. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
  6. Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-20, April.
  7. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 2001. "Classical And Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economics Series Working Papers 9960, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Working Papers 0408, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  9. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Working Papers 261, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Croux, Christophe & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  13. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  14. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2001. "The Euro after Two Years," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 1-13, 03.
  15. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
  16. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2005. "Business Cycles in the New EU Member Countries and their Conformity with the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 7-41.
  17. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  18. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  19. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2006. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Working Papers 0604, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  20. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Fraley C. & Raftery A.E., 2002. "Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 611-631, June.
  22. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise, 1995. "Classical Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
  24. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183.
  25. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  26. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:2165-2190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.