IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/lunewp/2004_009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Similar Are European Business Cycles?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on how European economic integration has affected the synchronization and the magnitude of business cycles among participating countries. We measure, based on bandpass filtered data, the characteristics of European business cycles analyzing to what extent they have become more similar over time. We also consider the role of other factors such as differences in fiscal and monetary policy, border effects, and trade intensity. Our main finding is that European business cycles are highly synchronized, although we also find that synchronization was higher during periods with highly flexible exchange rates. In addition we find a positive tradeoff between timing and magnitude such that more synchronization coincides with larger relative magnitude. These results raise concern about the consequences of a common monetary policy within EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2004_009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP04_9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    3. Fatas, Antonio, 1997. "EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 743-751, April.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2007. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 850-878, April.
    5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    6. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    7. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-374, August.
    8. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-279, April.
    9. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    10. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    11. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    12. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    13. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
    14. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    15. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    16. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
    17. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April.
    18. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
    19. Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-220, April.
    20. Andrew Dickerson & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-75, January.
    21. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    23. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 223-247, April.
    25. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    26. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    27. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    28. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-632, November.
    29. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    30. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    31. Bowden, Roger J & Martin, Vance L, 1995. "International Business Cycles and Financial Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 305-320, May.
    32. Gerlach, Stefan & Klock, John, 1988. "State-space estimates of international business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 231-234.
    33. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Olaf Sleijpen, 2002. "Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 23-42, March.
    34. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
    35. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2003. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Their Synchronicity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 116-131, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    3. Jacques Pelkmans & Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Alessandro Maravalle, 2008. "How product market reforms lubricate shock adjustment in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 341, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    5. Dapontas Dimitrios & Evangelopoulos Panagiotis, 2013. "Has the NAFTA Foundation Affected Business Cycles Length? An Introduction," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 145-153, July.
    6. Łukasz Lenart & Mateusz Pipień, 2017. "Non-Parametric Test for the Existence of the Common Deterministic Cycle: The Case of the Selected European Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(3), pages 201-241, September.
    7. Saša Obradović & Vladimir Mihajlović, 2013. "Synchronization of Business Cycles in the Selected European Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 759-773, December.
    8. Yasuyuki Komaki & Nobuo Iizuka, 2010. "Some aspects of the OECD business cycle - The effects of EMU -," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 6(2), pages 199-236, March.
    9. Erkan Erdil & Y?lmaz Akdi, 2019. "Customs Union Effect in International Trade: Turkish Case," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 43-58, November.
    10. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pedro Oliveira, Maria Paula Fontoura, Nuno Sobreira, 2023. "Symmetry Of Demand And Supply Shocks In The Eurozone," Working Papers REM 2023/0275, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Sectoral and Industrial Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    14. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    15. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    16. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    17. Janiga-Ćmiel Anna, 2016. "An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 119-134, December.
    18. Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model for the German economy within the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    20. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-114.
    21. Luigi Bocola, 2006. "Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 25-62, November-.
    22. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    2. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    3. U. Michael Bergman, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004.
    4. Chang, Koyin & Kim, Yoonbai & Tomljanovich, Marc & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2013. "Do political parties foster business cycles? An examination of developed economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 212-226.
    5. Maurizio Bovi, 2003. "Nonparametric Analysis Of The International Business Cycles," ISAE Working Papers 37, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    6. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
    7. U. Bergman, 2008. "Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-69, July.
    8. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    9. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    10. Pedro José Pérez & José Ramón García & Luisa Escriche, 2005. "Importancia De Las Perturbaciones Externas En La Economía Española Tras La Integración: ¿Tamaño Del Shock O Grado De Respuesta?," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    11. Peiro, Amado, 2005. "Economic comovements in European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, July.
    12. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "Half a century of empirical evidence of business cycles in OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 389-409.
    13. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.
    14. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
    15. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.
    16. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    17. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    18. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    19. Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation in the European Union: The effect of the common currency," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-14.
    20. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; symmetry and co-movement of cycles; magnitude of cycles; economic integration; monetary union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2004_009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prakriti Thami (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delunse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.