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Do national business cycles have an international origin?


  • Joffrey Malek Mansour


This paper analyses a set of output data for 113 countries and identifies common sources of fluctuations, to estimate a world business cycle. We also analyze the multiplier effects of worldwide or global shocks and their implications for the persistence and amplitude of cyclical fluctuations. We find that a higher relative importance of global shocks leads to lower persistence and greater volatility. Finally, we compare some regional integration agreements and find that the EC emerges as the most integrated block. The analytical framework used is that of Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (1999). Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 223-247, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:2:p:223-247 DOI: 10.1007/s001810200128

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. repec:kap:iaecre:v:18:y:2012:i:1:p:28-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
    5. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2006. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Working Paper Series 671, European Central Bank.
    6. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:89:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    11. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    12. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    13. Sybille Lehwald, 2013. "Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
    14. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    15. Graff Michael, 2006. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde / International Business Cycles," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(4), pages 385-417, August.
    16. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    17. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    18. Jason Jones & Nora Collins & Lauren Sribnick, 2012. "External Influences on Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 28-39, February.
    19. Ana Buisán & Fernando Restoy, 2005. "Cross country macroeconomic heterogeneity in EMU," Occasional Papers 0504, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    20. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Kong Yam Tan & Tilak Abeysinghe & Khee Giap Tan, 2015. "Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 157-173, Winter/Sp.

    More about this item


    Key words: business cycles; dynamic factor analysis; economic integration; principal components; JEL classification numbers: C23; E32; F02;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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