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Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5


  • Kong Yam Tan

    () (Asia Competitiveness Institute and LKY School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore)

  • Tilak Abeysinghe

    () (National University of Singapore and Asia Competitiveness Institute LKY School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore)

  • Khee Giap Tan

    () (Asia Competitiveness Institute LKY School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore)


How the old saying “when the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold” holds true has been the subject of many research papers on global and country group business cycle synchronization and divergence. Instead of business cycle linkages, however, this paper examines the evolution of the dependence of ASEAN-5 and other Asian economies on their traditional and emerging growth engines (the United States, EU, Japan, China, and India). For this we use a structural vector autoregression model that yields time-varying growth multiplier effects. Although China has overtaken others as a major export destination for ASEAN-5 and despite the United States losing much of its relative economic clout in Asia, the multiplier effects show that the United States is still about 1.5 times more growth-enhancing than China for ASEAN-5. The EU has also not lost out completely to China as a growth engine. China, however, has overtaken Japan to become about 1.88 times more growth enhancing than Japan for ASEAN-5. India has yet to become a significant growth engine, although it is of increasing importance to Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These results call for new initiatives to balance the rising over-dependence on China. © 2015 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Kong Yam Tan & Tilak Abeysinghe & Khee Giap Tan, 2015. "Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(1), pages 157-173, Winter/Sp.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:14:y:2015:i:1:p:157-173

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output‐Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, May.
    2. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2009. "Analyzing and forecasting business cycles in a small open economy: A dynamic factor model for Singapore," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2009(1), pages 19-41.
    3. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    4. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
    5. Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
    6. Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 223-247, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.

    More about this item


    business cycle; linkage; link; ASEAN-5; structural vector autoregression model; major export destination; multiplier effects;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles


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