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China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

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  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Iikka Korhonen
  • Ivana Bátorová

Abstract

We analyze globalization and business cycles in China and selected OECD countries using dynamic correlation analysis. We show that dynamic correlations of business cycles of OECD countries and China are low at business-cycle frequencies and positive for short-run developments. Furthermore, trade of OECD countries and China lowers the degree of business-cycle synchronization within the OECD area, especially at business-cycle frequencies. Thus, different degrees of participation in globalization can explain the differences between the business cycles of OECD countries. (JEL codes: E32, F15, F41) Copyright The Authors 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen & Ivana Bátorová, 2013. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(2), pages 392-411, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:59:y:2013:i:2:p:392-411
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifs016
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Zheng, Bo & Ren, Fei & Qiu, Tian, 2017. "Localized motion in random matrix decomposition of complex financial systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 154-161.
    2. Jingjing Lyu & Bernd Süssmuth, 2024. "Global Linkages across Sectors and Frequency Bands: A Band Spectral Panel Regression Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10970, CESifo.
    3. Kapounek, Svatopluk & Kučerová, Zuzana, 2019. "Historical decoupling in the EU: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 265-280.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
    5. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    6. M. J. Herrerias & Javier Ordoñez, 2011. "If the Unites States sneezes, does the world need paracetamol?," Working Papers 2011/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    7. Dilip Nachane & Amlendu Dubey, 2018. "India in the globalized economy : Growth spillovers & business cycle synchronization," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 89-115, January.
    8. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Martin Feldkircher & Iikka Korhonen, 2014. "The Rise of China and Its Implications for the Global Economy: Evidence from a Global Vector Autoregressive Model," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 61-89, February.
    10. Dilip M. Nachane & Amlendu Dubey, 2021. "The Spectral Envelope: An Application to the Decoupling Problem in Economics," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 287-308, December.
    11. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    12. Ladislava Issever Grochová & Petr Rozmahel, 2015. "On the Ideality of Filtering Techniques in the Business Cycle Analysis Under Conditions of European Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 915-926.
    13. Shruthi Jayaram & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2009. "Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India," Trade Working Papers 22972, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. D. M. Nachane, 2018. "Time-varying spectral analysis: theory and applications," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 3-27, December.
    15. Poměnková, Jitka & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2014. "China and the World economy: Wavelet spectrum analysis of business cycles," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Zuzana Kucerova & Jitka Pomenkova, 2014. "Financial and Trade Integration of Selected EU Regions: Dynamic Correlation and Wavelet Approach," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2014-45, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    17. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2011. "Trans-Pacific Economic Relations and US-China Business Cycles : Convergence within Asia versus US Economic Leadership," Development Economics Working Papers 23244, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.
    19. Jitka Poměnková & Svatopluk Kapounek & Roman Maršálek, 2014. "Variability of Dynamic Correlation - The Evidence of Sector-Specific Shocks in V4 Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 371-387.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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