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ClubMed? Cyclical Fluctuations in the Mediterranean Basin

  • Fabio Canova
  • Matteo Ciccarelli

We investigate the similarities of macroeconomicfluctuations in the Mediterranean basin and their convergence. A model with three geo-political indicators, covering the West, the East and the MENA portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Convergence and divergence coexist in the region and are reversible. Except forn the West, domestic cyclical fluctuations are still due to national and idiosyncratic causes. The outlook for the next few years looks rosier for the MENA and the East blocks than for the West.

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Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 532.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:532
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  1. Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-20, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
  3. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Sumru Altug & Bilin Neyapti & Mustafa Emin, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 347-366, December.
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  7. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2007. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 850-878, April.
  8. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Online Appendix to Argentina's Lost Decade and the Subsequent Recovery Puzzle," Technical Appendices kydland02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  9. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1265-1293, November.
  10. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1217, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  11. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  12. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
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  14. Matteo Ciccarelli & Fabio Canova, 2006. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 478, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga, 2001. "Argentina's lost decade," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  16. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2009. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Working Papers 0921, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  17. Thomas Helbling & Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 03/46, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  19. Sturm, Michael & Sauter, Nicolas, 2010. "The impact of the global financial turmoil and recession on Mediterranean countries’ economies," Occasional Paper Series 118, European Central Bank.
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