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How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean

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  • Canova, Fabio
  • Dallari, Pietro

Abstract

We quantify the importance of the tourism channel for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations to the Mediterranean basin. We use five destination countries and a number of source countries to provide broad evidence on the link. Source country output shocks produce important fluctuations in international tourism flows. Absent the tourism channel, the output effects in a typical destination country would be reduced by about one-fourth. Imported shocks account for an important portion of the fluctuations in destination countries variables. Policy prescriptions are discussed. JEL Classification: E32, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio & Dallari, Pietro, 2013. "How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean," Working Paper Series 1553, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131553
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2014. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 93-122, February.
    2. Sturm, Michael & Sauter, Nicolas, 2010. "The impact of the global financial turmoil and recession on Mediterranean countries’ economies," Occasional Paper Series 118, European Central Bank.
    3. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    4. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
    5. Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2015. "Has the Euro‐Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 241-262, March.
    6. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, April.
    7. Robert Lanquar, 2011. "Tourism in the MED 11 Countries," CASE Network Reports 0098, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    9. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2006. "Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 737-776, April.
    10. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    11. repec:eee:touman:v:31:y:2010:i:3:p:367-377 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mayers, Sherry-Ann & Jackman, Mahalia, 2011. "Investigating the business cycle properties of tourist flows to Barbados," MPRA Paper 38646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, enero-jun.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Schlaepfer, Alan, 2014. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. repec:eee:touman:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:281-291 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian random coefficient VARs; International business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Tourism flows;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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