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Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis

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  • Alain Kabundi

Abstract

This paper studies the synchronisation of the South African and the US cycles and transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa in a structural dynamic factor model framework. We find, using the full-sample period, US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services; while US demand shocks are transmitted "via" interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronisation of cycles. The impact of an increase in comovement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy. Copyright (c) 2009 The Author. Journal compilation (c) 2009 Economic Society of South Africa.

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  • Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:77:y:2009:i:1:p:1-27
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:3:p:430-454 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/05- Transmission of China’s Shocks to the BRIS Countries," Papers 6345, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2010. "Patterns Of Co‐Movement Between South Africa And Germany: Evidence From The Period 1985 To 2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 383-399, December.
    4. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2009. "Patterns of co-movement between a developed and emerging market economy: The case of South Africa and Germany," Working Papers 159, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, pages 430-454.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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