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Synchronisation des cycles au sein du G7 et intégration commerciale et financière

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  • Benoît Heitz
  • François Hild
  • Brieuc Monfort

Abstract

This article examines changes in business-cycle synchronization in the G7 economies in the past thirty years. It specifically analyzes the impact of two synchronization transmission channels: trade and financial relations. Trade relations have gradually increased over the sample period, while financial integration has accelerated since the second half of the 1980s. Using a state-space model, we identify a common business cycle for GDP, exports, and stock-market indexes. We find that the links between economies measured by trade flows and stock-market indexes have indeed increased. By contrast, using GDP as the yardstick, we cannot conclude that the economies have become more synchronized in the recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Heitz & François Hild & Brieuc Monfort, 2006. "Synchronisation des cycles au sein du G7 et intégration commerciale et financière," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 172(1), pages 45-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_172_0045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4391b5w7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    2. Fathi Elachhab, 2009. "Décrire le cycle économique en Tunisie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 75-92.
    3. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The effects of a greater central bank credibility on interest rates level and volatility response to news in the U.K," MPRA Paper 5263, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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