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Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach

  • Robin L. Lumsdaine

    (Deutsche Bank and NBER Research Department, IMF)

  • Eswar S. Prasad

    (Deutsche Bank and NBER Research Department, IMF)

In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time--varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time--varying weights is based on some stylised features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. We find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component. We also find some evidence that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the period after 1973. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2003.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 113 (2003)
Issue (Month): 484 (January)
Pages: 101-127

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:113:y:2003:i:484:p:101-127
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