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Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories


  • Stephen G. Cecchetti
  • Anil K. Kashyap
  • David W. Wilcox


This paper shows that in several U.S. manufacturing industries, the seasonal variability of production and inventories varies with the state of the business cycle. We present a simple model which implies that if firms reduce the seasonal variability of their production as the economy strengthens, and they either hold constant or increase the stock of inventories they bring into the high-production seasons of the year, then they must face upward-sloping and convex marginal production cost curves. We conclude that firms in a number of industries face upward-sloping and convex marginal-production-cost curves.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K. Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1997. "Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhma:wp-97-06

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:72-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2009. "Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(4), pages 427-448.
    3. Dick van Dijk 1 & Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 79-98, June.
    4. Durmaz, Tunç, 2016. "Precautionary Storage in Electricity Markets," Discussion Papers 2016/5, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    5. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
    6. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    8. repec:eee:jbrese:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:82-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2007. "Modelling Seasonal Dynamics in Indian Industrial Production--An Extention of TV-STAR Model," Working papers 162, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
    11. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, March.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00289 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sun, Wenbin & Cui, Kexiu, 2014. "Linking corporate social responsibility to firm default risk," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 275-287.
    14. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
    15. Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
    16. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2009. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 683-713, October.
    17. Ghali, Moheb A., 2003. "Production-planning horizon, production smoothing, and convexity of the cost functions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 67-74, January.
    18. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    19. Federico Mini & Guido De Blasio, 2000. "Seasonality and Capacity; An Application to Italy," IMF Working Papers 00/80, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Tomiura, Eiichi, 2002. "Capacity constraint and changing seasonality over business cycles: evidence from plant-level production data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 115-120, June.
    21. repec:eee:mulfin:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:23-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Wen, Yi, 2002. "The business cycle effects of Christmas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1289-1314, September.
    23. Kumawat, Lokendra, 2010. "Effect of Rainfall on Seasonals in Indian Manufacturing Production: Evidence from Sectoral Data," MPRA Paper 25300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Michael C. Davis & Christian M. End, 2010. "A Winning Proposition: The Economic Impact Of Successful National Football League Franchises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 39-50, January.


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