Interest-Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets: Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk
We use a time series modeling approach to address two related questions of interest to foreign-exchange market participants and policy makers dealing with basket currencies. First, how are unknown weights appropriately extracted from basket currencies? Second, how does one correctly account for the risk--in terms of conditional variance of expected profits--that time-varying weights add to the standard basket-hedge position? We suggest a methodology that can provide answers to these questions and apply it to the heavily traded Thai baht currency basket.
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Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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