Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis
This paper presents an application of a recently developed approach by Matteson and James (2012) for the analysis of change points in a data set, namely major financial market indices converted to financial return series. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in the distribution of a set of time-ordered variables. The approach involves the nonparametric estimation of both the number of change points and the positions at which they occur. The approach is general and does not involve assumptions about the nature of the distributions involved or the type of change beyond the assumption of the existence of the absolute moment, for some 2 (0; 2). The estimation procedure is based on hierarchical clustering and the application of both divisive and agglomerative algorithms. The method is used to evaluate the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the US, French, German, UK, Japanese and Chinese markets, as represented by the S&P500, CAC, DAX, FTSE All Share, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai A share Indices, respectively, from 2003 to 2013. The approach is used to explore the timing and number of change points in the datasets corresponding to the GFC and subsequent European Debt Crisis.
|Date of creation:||May 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Yoshida-Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501|
Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael McAleer & David Allen & Ron Amram, 2011.
"Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours,"
KIER Working Papers
805, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Allen, David E. & Amram, Ron & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to economic neighbours," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 238-257.
- David E. Allena & Ron Amrama & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours," Working Papers in Economics 11/42, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- David E. Allen & Ron Amram & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-38, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Amram, R., 2011. "Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- MArdi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008.
"Are Financial Crises Alike?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2008-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, April.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Makram Talih & Nicolas Hengartner, 2005. "Structural learning with time-varying components: tracking the cross-section of financial time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(3), pages 321-341.
- Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, April.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, February.
- J. Andrew Coutts & Terence Mills & Jennifer Roberts, 1995. "Misspecification of the market model: the implications for event studies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 163-165.
- A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ryo Okui)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.