IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/anture/v73y2018icp159-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local tourism cycle and external business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Gu, Xinhua
  • Wu, Jie
  • Guo, Haizhen
  • Li, Guoqiang

Abstract

This paper uses a Markov switching model (MSM) to decompose Macao’s tourism cycle into high and low growth states (HGS, LGS) for the period of 2005Q2–2017Q2. The likelihood of the cycle maintaining HGS is 93% but the risk of staying in LGS is 80%. The Macao cycle is favorably asymmetric, with HGS (14.7 quarters) lasting much longer than LGS (5.1 quarters). Further, the paper combines structural regressions with the MSM to identify determinants of the Macao cycle, with useful policy implications derived from the regression results. We find that Macao’s tourism cycle is heavily affected by Mainland China’s business cycle and other external factors. Additionally, outward-looking marketing, albeit very costly, is found to be effective for keeping the local cycle in HGS.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Xinhua & Wu, Jie & Guo, Haizhen & Li, Guoqiang, 2018. "Local tourism cycle and external business cycle," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:159-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2018.06.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738318300665
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.annals.2018.06.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Xinhua Gu & Guoqiang Li & Pui Sun Tam, 2013. "Casino tourism, social cost and tax effects," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 221-239, August.
    3. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    4. Xinhua Gu & Pui Sun Tam & Chun Kwok Lei & Xiao Chang, 2016. "The Economics of Taxation in Casino Tourism with Cross-border Market Power," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 113-125, February.
    5. Fanny Vong, 2007. "The Psychology of Risk-taking in Gambling among Chinese Visitors to Macau," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 29-42.
    6. Ozbek, Levent & Ozlale, Umit, 2005. "Employing the extended Kalman filter in measuring the output gap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1611-1622, September.
    7. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-117, May.
    8. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2013:v:5:p:160-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chin-Hung Liu & Cheng-Yih Hong & Jian-Fa Li, 2013. "The Determinants Of Ecotourism Behavioral Intentions," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(4), pages 71-84.
    10. Robertico Croes & Jorge Ridderstaat, 2017. "The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1451-1475, November.
    11. Lee, Jae-Ho & Park, Na Ri, 2013. "Mice and Medical Tourism in Singapore," World Economy Brief 13-49, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    12. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    13. Ocde, 2013. "L'innovation verte dans les services touristiques," Études de l'OCDE sur le tourisme 2013/1, OECD Publishing.
    14. World Bank, 2015. "World Development Indicators 2015," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21634.
    15. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    16. Mayers, Sherry-Ann & Jackman, Mahalia, 2011. "Investigating the business cycle properties of tourist flows to Barbados," MPRA Paper 38646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2013. "Determinants of the Taiwanese tourist hotel industry cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-19.
    18. Gina Ionela Butnaru & Luminita Mihaela Ion, 2013. "Problems Of Consumer Protection In Tourism," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5(2), pages 160-176.
    19. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2005. "Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 501-515, December.
    20. Oecd, 2013. "Green Innovation in Tourism Services," OECD Tourism Papers 2013/1, OECD Publishing.
    21. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    22. Hsu, Pao-Peng, 2017. "Examination of Taiwan's travel and tourism market cycle through a two-period Markov regime-switching model," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 201-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fanli Zhou & Tianshu Zheng & Thomas Schrier & John Farrish, 2022. "Examining the Impact of China’s Corruption Crackdown: A Forecast for Macau’s Tourism and Gaming Industry," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Xiang Lin & Martin Thomas Falk, 2022. "Nordic stock market performance of the travel and leisure industry during the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1240-1257, August.
    3. Chaoqun Chen & Yonghong Zhou, 2021. "Institutional endowment, curse, and the impact of external political shock: The case of Macao," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2433-2453, November.
    4. Seuk Wai Phoong & Seuk Yen Phoong & Shi Ling Khek, 2022. "Systematic Literature Review With Bibliometric Analysis on Markov Switching Model: Methods and Applications," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    5. Chien-Chiang Lee & Godwin O Olasehinde-Williams & Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun, 2022. "GDP volatility implication of tourism volatility in South Africa: A time-varying approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 435-450, March.
    6. Emoto, Masakazu & Sunakawa, Takeki, 2021. "Applying the explicit aggregation algorithm to heterogeneous agent models in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stoeckl, Natalie & Farr, Marina & Larson, Silva & Adams, Vanessa M. & Kubiszewski, Ida & Esparon, Michelle & Costanza, Robert, 2014. "A new approach to the problem of overlapping values: A case study in Australia׳s Great Barrier Reef," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 61-78.
    2. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Robertico Croes & Jorge Ridderstaat, 2017. "The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1451-1475, November.
    4. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
    5. Hsu, Pao-Peng, 2017. "Examination of Taiwan's travel and tourism market cycle through a two-period Markov regime-switching model," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 201-208.
    6. Chien-Chiang Lee & Godwin O Olasehinde-Williams & Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun, 2022. "GDP volatility implication of tourism volatility in South Africa: A time-varying approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 435-450, March.
    7. Chun-Chang Lee & Chih-Min Liang & Hsing-Jung Chou, 2013. "Identifying Taiwan real estate cycle turning points- An application of the multivariate Markov-switching autoregressive Model," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 1-1.
    8. Daniel M. Chin & John Geweke & Preston J. Miller, 2000. "Predicting turning points," Staff Report 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2014. "Dynamics of Consumption and Dividends over the Business Cycle," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp522, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Marian Vavra, 2012. "A Note on the Finite Sample Properties of the CLS Method of TAR Models," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1206, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    12. Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Jijian & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2020. "Detection of volatility regime-switching for crude oil price modeling and forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2020. "Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear, asymmetric panel‐data evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 50-62, January.
    14. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    15. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2013. "Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle," Economy and Society 151531, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Jorge Andrés Tamayo Castaño, 2012. "Asimetrías en la demanda por trabajo en Colombia: el papel del ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 689, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Spencer D. Krane, 2006. "How professional forecasters view shocks to GDP," Working Paper Series WP-06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    18. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
    19. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 663-688.
    20. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:159-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/annals-of-tourism-research/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.