Depressions in the Colombian Economic Growth Durng the XX Century: A Markov Switching Regime Model
In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian economy remains in the sustainable growth regime most of the time. The turning points from the Markov switching model capture very well the behavior of real output through time. In fact, they identify the four main depressions of the century.
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