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El Costo de los Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Una Nueva Estimación

  • Mauricio A. Hernández

    ()

  • Munir A. Jalil

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables variaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de producción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo estabilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incrementado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fluctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo 1,53% -1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la compensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos escenarios (fluctuante y estable) equivaldría, en promedio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 353.

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  1. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002465, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003520, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  4. Franz Hamann S. & Alvaro Riascos, 1998. "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta - Una Aplicación para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002122, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Luis Eduardo Arango, . "Temporary and Permanent Components of Colombia's Output," Borradores de Economia 096, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," International Finance 0212001, EconWPA.
  7. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
  8. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, . "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Luis H. Gutiérrez & Carlos Pombo, 2005. "Corporate Valuation and Governance: Evidence from Colombia," Research Department Publications 3216, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  11. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002274, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  13. Birchenall Jiménez Javier Arturo, 1997. "Inversión, q de Tobin, e incertidumbre en la industria colombiana," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  14. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 1992. "Una nota sobre el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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