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Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano

  • Wilman Gómez
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

El período 1994-2001 correspondió al de un ciclo de la economía colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresión ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcción y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen al auge y a la posterior depresión de la economía: Un aumento transitorio, súbito e imprevisto del activo externo neto (gracias, supuestamente, a una caida de la tasa externa de interés). Tal "choque desató, según los resultados de las simulaciones descritas en este documento, primero, un auge, y después, una desaceleración. Con todo, la desaceleración predicha por el choque mencionado, así que en 1998 debió ocurrir un choque adicional, esta vez de magnitud negativa, capaz de transformar aquella en una depresión.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 285.

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