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Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Wilman Gómez
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

El período 1994-2001 correspondió al de un ciclo de la economía colombiana, especialmente intenso sobretodo en lo que se refiere a la magnitud de la depresión ocurrida entre 1998 y 2001. En el presente documento se describe la construcción y el uso de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para evaluar los efectos de un impacto que, presumiblemente, dio origen al auge y a la posterior depresión de la economía: Un aumento transitorio, súbito e imprevisto del activo externo neto (gracias, supuestamente, a una caida de la tasa externa de interés). Tal "choque desató, según los resultados de las simulaciones descritas en este documento, primero, un auge, y después, una desaceleración. Con todo, la desaceleración predicha por el choque mencionado, así que en 1998 debió ocurrir un choque adicional, esta vez de magnitud negativa, capaz de transformar aquella en una depresión.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:285
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo económico; modelo de equilibrio general dinámico; impulso o choque; respuestas cíclicas; auge; depresión; entradas y salidas de capital.;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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