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Fricciones crediticias y 'paradas repentinas' en pequeñas economías abiertas: un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico para crisis en mercados emergentes

  • Cristina Arellano
  • Enrique Mendoza

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las fricciones financieras son un elemento central de la mayoría de los modelos que ha propuesto la obra publicada sobre los mercados emergentes para explicar el fenómeno de las paradas repentinas. A la fecha, son pocos los estudios que han procurado analizar las implicaciones cuantitativas de esos modelos e integrarlos a un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico de las economías emergentes. En este trabajo se analizan esos estudios, considerándoselos variaciones de la capacidad de pago y de la disposición a pagar en un marco que ocasionalmente incorpora limitantes del endeudamiento al modelo del ciclo económico real de economías pequeñas que a veces resultan de obligatorio acatamiento. Una característica que tienen en común los diversos modelos es que los agentes toman en cuenta el riesgo de paradas repentinas futuras en sus planes óptimos, de modo que las asignaciones de equilibrio y los precios se distorsionan incluso cuando las limitantes crediticias no son obligatorias. Las paradas repentinas pertenecen al equilibrio competitivo de precios flexibles y únicos de esos modelos, que ocurren en una región determinada del espacio del Estado en el que sacudidas negativas hacen obligatorias las limitantes al endeudamiento. Los efectos resultantes no lineales implican que resolver los modelos requiere métodos numéricos no lineales, los cuales se describen en el sondeo. Los resultados demuestran que los modelos pueden arrojar paradas repentinas poco frecuentes con efectos negativos de la cuenta corriente y recesiones profundas enmarcadas en ciclos económicos más suaves. Aún así, las investigaciones en este campo se hallan en una etapa incipiente y este estudio procura estimular nuevos trabajos en esta área.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4308.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4308
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