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El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación

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  • MAURICIO A. HERNÁNDEZ M

  • MUNIR A. JALIL B

  • CARLOS ESTEBAN POSADA P

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables variaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de producción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital, que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fl uctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo estabilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incrementado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fl uctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo entre 1,53% y 1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la compensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos escenarios (fl uctuante y estable) equivaldría, en promedio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio A. Hernández M & Munir A. Jalil B & Carlos Esteban Posada P, 2007. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(53), pages 288-335, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:25:y:2007:i:53:p:288-335
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5307
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    2. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrill�n, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    3. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-47.
    4. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andr�s Felipe Garc�a, 2007. "�La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento econ�mico?," Borradores de Economia 3814, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Gómez, Sandra Milena, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2498, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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