IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000093/011067.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno

Author

Listed:
  • Camilo Alvis
  • Cristian Castrillón

Abstract

Este artículo tiene como propósito hacer una estimación econométrica del modelo de gasto público y crecimiento económico de Barro (1990). La estimación se realizó mediante el método generalizado de los momentos (GMM) para la economía colombiana durante el período 1950-2010. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que el tamano óptimo del gasto público se sobrepasó al empezar la década de los noventa. Además, se encontró que el tamano del gasto público que maximiza la tasa de crecimiento del PIB per cápita depende inversamente del grado relativo de aversión al riesgo y que la elasticidad de sustitución intertemporal es baja para el período analizado. ***** The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the Barro (1990) model of public expenditure and economic growth. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimation was used to examine the Colombian economy during the period 1950–2010. The results suggest that, starting in the early 1990s, the optimal size of public expenditure was exceeded. Furthermore, the authors found that optimal public expenditure levels required to maximize the GDP per capita growth rate depend inversely on the degree of relative risk aversion and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution, which were very low in the period analyzed. ***** Le propos de cet article est de faire une estimation économétrique du modele de dépense publique et de croissance économique de Barro (1990). A partir de la méthode des moments généralisée [en anglais GMM] on propose une estimation pour l’économie colombienne durant la période 1995-2010. Les résultats obtenus suggerent que la taille optimale de la dépense publique a été dépassée au début de la décennie 1990. D’autre part, on observe que la taille de la dépense publique qui maximise le taux de croissance du PIB per capita dépend inversement du degré relatif d’aversion au risque et que l’élasticité de substitution intertemporelle est faible pour la période analysée.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:011067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/media/files/documentos/Cuadernos/60/finales/v32n60a10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-1329, December.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jorion, Philippe & Giovannini, Alberto, 1993. "Time-series tests of a non-expected-utility model of asset pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1083-1100, June.
    6. Carolina Mejía Mantilla & Mauricio Cárdenas & Mauricio Olivera, 2006. "La economía política del proceso presupuestal en Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 2988, Fedesarrollo.
    7. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    10. Carlos Estaban Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2002. "Crecimiento económico y gasto público: un modelo para el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 20(41-42), pages 5-86, June.
    11. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October.
    12. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    13. Ana María Iregui B. & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," Borradores de Economia 547, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    15. repec:awi:wpaper:0464 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    17. Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrea Rojas A., 2008. "El crecimiento económico colombiano: datos nuevos y modelos viejos para interpretar el perído 1925-2000," Borradores de Economia 4508, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Carlos Esteban Posada P., 1996. "Por Que Ha Crecido El Gasto Publico?," Borradores de Economia 3358, Banco de la Republica.
    19. Mauricio A. Hernández M & Munir A. Jalil B & Carlos Esteban Posada P, 2007. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(53), pages 288-335, January.
    20. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    21. Acemoglu, Daron, 2005. "Politics and economics in weak and strong states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1199-1226, October.
    22. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    23. Carlos Esteban Posada & Carlos Caballero Argáez, 2003. "Una Nota Sobre Los Elementos Coyunturales Y Estructurales Del Deficit Fiscal En El Caso Colombiano Reciente," Borradores de Economia 3718, Banco de la Republica.
    24. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    26. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    27. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Dar, Atul A. & AmirKhalkhali, Sal, 2002. "Government size, factor accumulation, and economic growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 679-692, November.
    29. Jorge E. Espitia, 2004. "La descentralización fiscal y el crecimiento económico: evidencia para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(46-1), pages 186-248, December.
    30. Taiji Harashima, 2005. "An Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution in a Production Economy," Macroeconomics 0508030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Mihai MutaÅŸcu & Marius MiloÅŸ, 2009. "Optimal Size Of Government Spending. The Case Of European Union Member States," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 1-45.
    32. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, September.
    33. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 115-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobón Orozco, David & Molina, Carlos & Vargas, Harvey, 2018. "Can environmental taxes and payments for ecosystem services regulate pollution when the resilience of water bodies is surpassed?," Borradores Departamento de Economía 17179, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    2. Estrada, Fernando & Trujillo, Marlyn Tatiana & Pardo, Diego, 2018. "Política Fiscal, Ingresos y Desigualdad en Colombia (1990-2015) [Fiscal Policy, Income And Inequality In Colombia (1990-2015)]," MPRA Paper 88748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero, 2017. "El gasto público en Colombia: Algunos aspectos sobre su tamaño, evolución y estructura," Borradores de Economia 1003, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taiji Harashima, 2005. "An Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution in a Production Economy," Macroeconomics 0508030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    3. repec:cte:wbrepe:wb063209 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    5. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    6. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    7. Giuliano, Paola & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and economic performance in a stochastically growing open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 529-556, August.
    8. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    9. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1995. "Asset Pricing Lessons for Modeling Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Qiang Zhang, 2004. "Accounting for Human Capital and Weak Identification in Evaluating the Esptein-Zin-Weil Non-Expected Utility Model of Asset Pricing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-289, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Houssa, Romain, 2013. "Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 35-62.
    12. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    13. Issler, João Victor & Piqueira, Natalia Scotto, 2000. "Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, the Discount Rate, and the Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution in Consumption for Brazil Using Three Types of Utility Function," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 20(2), November.
    14. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Smith, William T., 2006. "Equilibrium consumption and precautionary savings in a stochastically growing economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 243-278, February.
    15. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    16. Fabio Araujo & Marcelo Fernandes e João Victor Issler, 2004. "Using Common Features to Construct a Preference-Free Estimator of the Stochastic Discount Factor," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 134, Econometric Society.
    17. Issler, João Victor & Piqueira, Natália Scotto, 2000. "Estimando a Aversão ao Risco, a Taxa de Desconto Intertemporal, e a Substutibilidade Intertemporal do Consumo no Brasil usando Três tipos de Função Utilidade (Versão Preliminar)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 387, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    18. Issler, João Victor & Piqueira, Natália Scotto, 2001. "Estimando a aversão ao risco, a taxa de desconto intertemporal, e a substutibilidade intertemporal do consumo no Brasil usando três tipos de função utilidade," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 424, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    19. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    20. John Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2007. "Risk Based Explanations of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crecimiento económico; gasto público; política fiscal; métodos econométricos y estadísticos; programación de modelos; modelación econométrica.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000093:011067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Ciencias Economicas Unal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/funalco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.