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Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno

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  • Camilo Alvis
  • Cristian Castrillón

Abstract

Este artículo tiene como propósito hacer una estimación econométrica del modelo de gasto público y crecimiento económico de Barro (1990). La estimación se realizó mediante el método generalizado de los momentos (GMM) para la economía colombiana durante el período 1950-2010. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que el tamano óptimo del gasto público se sobrepasó al empezar la década de los noventa. Además, se encontró que el tamano del gasto público que maximiza la tasa de crecimiento del PIB per cápita depende inversamente del grado relativo de aversión al riesgo y que la elasticidad de sustitución intertemporal es baja para el período analizado. ***** The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the Barro (1990) model of public expenditure and economic growth. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimation was used to examine the Colombian economy during the period 1950–2010. The results suggest that, starting in the early 1990s, the optimal size of public expenditure was exceeded. Furthermore, the authors found that optimal public expenditure levels required to maximize the GDP per capita growth rate depend inversely on the degree of relative risk aversion and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution, which were very low in the period analyzed. ***** Le propos de cet article est de faire une estimation économétrique du modele de dépense publique et de croissance économique de Barro (1990). A partir de la méthode des moments généralisée [en anglais GMM] on propose une estimation pour l’économie colombienne durant la période 1995-2010. Les résultats obtenus suggerent que la taille optimale de la dépense publique a été dépassée au début de la décennie 1990. D’autre part, on observe que la taille de la dépense publique qui maximise le taux de croissance du PIB per capita dépend inversement du degré relatif d’aversion au risque et que l’élasticité de substitution intertemporelle est faible pour la période analysée.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:011067
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    2. Estrada, Fernando & Trujillo, Marlyn Tatiana & Pardo, Diego, 2018. "Política Fiscal, Ingresos y Desigualdad en Colombia (1990-2015) [Fiscal Policy, Income And Inequality In Colombia (1990-2015)]," MPRA Paper 88748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero, 2017. "El gasto público en Colombia: Algunos aspectos sobre su tamaño, evolución y estructura," Borradores de Economia 1003, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crecimiento económico; gasto público; política fiscal; métodos econométricos y estadísticos; programación de modelos; modelación econométrica.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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