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Por Que Ha Crecido El Gasto Publico?

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada P.

Abstract

Es evidente la preocupaci�n actual entre analistas y responsables de la pol�tica econ�mica colombiana por las finanzas p�blicas del pa�s. La preocupaci�n tiene dos dimensiones: Las perspectivas sobre la suerte futura del d�ficit del sector p�blico asociada a los ingresos y erogaciones del sistema de seguridad social, y el crecimiento casi continuo del gasto p�blico total, m�s intenso que el del producto interno bruto, por lo menos desde los a�os 50. Puesto que el pa�s ha venido soportando una o dos reformas tributarias por cuatrienio gubernamental en los �ltimos decenios, incluyendo en una de las m�s recientes el aumento de las cotizaciones a la seguridad social, la percepci�n general entre quienes tienen la mencionada preocupaci�n parece inclinarse hacia el examen del gasto p�blico, sin duda con la esperanza de que el freno a su expansi�n y algunos cambios en su composici�n permitan que la situaci�n fiscal permanezca bajo control. � Por qu� ha crecido el gasto p�blico? En las p�ginas siguientes se ofrece una respuesta. Pero la respuesta es apenas, una conjetura y se ubica en un nivel de abstracci�n bastante alto, quiz�s excesivamente alto a juicio de los lectores. Con todo, creo que la respuesta es �til para tratar de estimular nuevas reflexiones en vista de que tradicionalmente se ha considerado, en Colombia, que el gasto p�blico es un dato ex�geno, desde el punto de vista del economista, y que el gobierno es un ser benevolente que s�lo por insuficiente informaci�n, "desgre�o administrativo" e imposiciones jur�dicas podr�a ejecutar un gasto p�blico excesivo o ineficiente (1). Eso en cuanto al contenido. Por su forma, este documento es una nota acad�mica. En el cuerpo central la nota se expresa de manera informal y, aparentemente, m�s sencilla. En el anexo toma forma matem�tica. (1) Esta Hip�tesis es reiterada a lo largo del "Mensaje de la Comisi�n de Racionalizaci�n" (1996).

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada P., 1996. "Por Que Ha Crecido El Gasto Publico?," Borradores de Economia 3358, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003358
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1993. "Factor Shares and Savings in Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1184-1198, December.
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    7. Carlos A. Medina D. & Hernando Moreno G., 1995. "Desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso urbano en Colombia: un análisis de descomposición del coeficiente Gini," Coyuntura Social 13224, Fedesarrollo.
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    1. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrill�n, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.

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