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El Costo De Los Ciclos Económicos En Colombia: Una Nueva Estimación

  • MAURICIO A. HERNÁNDEZ M.

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  • MUNIR A. JALIL B.

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  • CARLOS ESTEBAN POSADA P.

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Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables va-riaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de produc-ción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital, que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fl uctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo esta-bilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incremen-tado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por año, en el escenario fl uctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo entre 1,53% y 1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad in-tertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la com-pensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos esce-narios (fl uctuante y estable) equivaldría, en prome-dio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): (July)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004637
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  1. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003549, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, 06.
  3. Luis H Gutiérrez & Carlos Pombo, 2005. "Corporate Valuation and Governance: Evidence from Colombia," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002203, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
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  7. Franz Hamann S. & Alvaro Riascos, 1998. "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta - Una Aplicación para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002122, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
  9. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, . "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 1992. "Una nota sobre el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  11. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003520, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2002. "Advanced Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar, number 1775, March.
  13. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk And Real Business Cycles In A Small Open Economic," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003521, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  14. Birchenall Jiménez Javier Arturo, 1997. "Inversión, q de Tobin, e incertidumbre en la industria colombiana," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, March.
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