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El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio A. Hernández M.
  • Munir A. Jalil B.
  • Carlos Esteban Posada P

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables va-riaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de produc-ción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital, que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fl uctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo esta-bilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incremen-tado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por ano, en el escenario fl uctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo entre 1,53% y 1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad in-tertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la com-pensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos esce-narios (fl uctuante y estable) equivaldría, en prome-dio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio A. Hernández M. & Munir A. Jalil B. & Carlos Esteban Posada P, 2007. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 288-335, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004637
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    2. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," Vniversitas Económica 8297, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    3. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Gómez, Sandra Milena, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2498, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," Borradores de Economia 3814, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fluctuaciones; costo de los ciclos; bienestar.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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