IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000107/004637.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio A. Hernández M.
  • Munir A. Jalil B.
  • Carlos Esteban Posada P

Abstract

Los ciclos económicos colombianos de la segunda mitad del siglo XX implicaron considerables va-riaciones en los agregados reales de la economía. A partir de un modelo con tecnología de produc-ción AK y una función de producción de bienes de capital, que presenta retornos decrecientes para la inversión, se calculó el costo de las fl uctuaciones económicas en términos de consumo y bienestar de las familias. Según nuestros resultados, bajo esta-bilidad económica la tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo del consumo per cápita se habría incremen-tado entre 0,13 y 0,47 puntos porcentuales, pasando de 1,4% por ano, en el escenario fl uctuante, a una tasa en el intervalo entre 1,53% y 1,87% anual. De acuerdo con diferentes niveles de la elasticidad in-tertemporal de sustitución del consumo, la com-pensación necesaria para hacer que las familias obtuvieran un mismo bienestar bajo los dos esce-narios (fl uctuante y estable) equivaldría, en prome-dio, a 4,7% del consumo inicial.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio A. Hernández M. & Munir A. Jalil B. & Carlos Esteban Posada P, 2007. "El costo de los ciclos económicos en Colombia: una nueva estimación," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 288-335, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004637
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.5307
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/Espe.5307?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 3520, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    3. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    4. Luis H Gutiérrez & Carlos Pombo, 2005. "Corporate Valuation and Governance: Evidence from Colombia," Borradores de Investigación 2203, Universidad del Rosario.
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," Borradores de Economia 3549, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2002. "Advanced Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1775.
    7. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
    8. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Franz Hamann S. & Alvaro Riascos, 1998. "Ciclos Económicos en una Economía Pequeña y Abierta - Una Aplicación para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2122, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 226, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2465, Banco de la Republica.
    12. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-1383, December.
    13. Birchenall Jiménez Javier Arturo, 1997. "Inversión, q de Tobin, e incertidumbre en la industria colombiana," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, March.
    14. Mauricio Cárdenas & Fedesarrollo, 1992. "Estabilización vs. crecimiento: ¿Qué preferimos los colombianos?," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, July.
    15. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 1992. "Una nota sobre el costo de las fluctuaciones económicas," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 11(21), pages 191-208, June.
    16. Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, 1999. "Los Ciclos Económicos Colombianos en el Siglo XX," Borradores de Economia 126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. repec:pri:wwseco:dp233 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamano óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    2. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," Vniversitas Económica 8297, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    3. Christian Volpe Martincus & Sandra Milena Gómez, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9292, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," Borradores de Economia 3814, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Gómez, Sandra Milena, 2009. "Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2498, Inter-American Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001," Borradores de Economia 3674, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Endogenous volatility, endogenous growth, and large welfare gains from stabilization policies," Working Papers 2006-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Antonio Fatas & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Macroeconomic Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28025.
    5. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2012. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 734, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    7. Wang, Peng-fei & Wen, Yi, 2011. "Volatility, growth, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1696-1709, October.
    8. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Openness, Volatility and the Risk Content of Exports," 2006 Meeting Papers 86, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Carlos Esteban Posada & Camilo Morales J. & Andrés Felipe García, 2007. "¿La inestabilidad frena el crecimiento económico?," Borradores de Economia 3814, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Piti Disyatat & Chayawadee Chai-anant, 2007. "Challenges to Managing Risk and Volatility in the Emerging Market Context," Working Papers 2007-01, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    12. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu & Ennio Stacchetti, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 780-804, October.
    13. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 8328, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
    16. Stéphane Dupraz & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2019. "A Plucking Model of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 26351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ma, Chang, 2020. "Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Bruno Ćorić & Vladimir Šimić, 2021. "Economic disasters and aggregate investment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3087-3124, December.
    19. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    20. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2014. "Productivity growth and volatility: how important are wage and price rigidities?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 306-324, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fluctuaciones; costo de los ciclos; bienestar.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000107:004637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Espe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.