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Integración y Vulneralidad Externa en Colombia

  • Cristina Fernández

    ()

  • Andrés González

“El presente artículo busca establecer las primeras bases para analizar la viabilidad de una coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas entre Colombia y otros países de la región. En particular, el trabajo pretende determinar cuáles países tienen un ciclo económico similar al de nuestro país y establecer las causas de estas similitudes. El principal resultado de este trabajo está en el hallazgo de una gran similitud entre el ciclo colombiano, el brasileño y el costarricense. La alta correlación que existe entre los términos de intercambio de estos países y los moderados niveles de comercio entre las tres economías, sugieren el hecho de que estas similitudes están relacionadas con las exportaciones cafeteras. Otro resultado importante de este estudio es que el efecto de los términos de intercambio sobre las tres economías seleccionadas se encuentra rezagado en uno o dos años. Este artículo sigue la línea del trabajo realizado por Cárdenas, Correa, Echavarría y Rodríguez (1999), pero no se restringe al Pacto Andino. La extensión del estudio a otros países de América Latina es muy importante para el caso colombiano, porque el ciclo colombiano se encuentra muy ligado a países como Brasil y Costa Rica que no pertenecen a la Comunidad Andina. El artículo se encuentra estructurado en seis secciones: la sección dos presenta la metodología utilizada para medir ciclos económicos y una descripción del ciclo económico colombiano; la tres analiza los determinantes del ciclo económico colombiano y los determinantes externos del mismo; la sección cuatro estudia la interdependencia del ciclo del PIB entre países, con énfasis en el caso colombiano; la cinco, pretende establecer las principales causas de correlación entre países; y la última sección presenta las conclusiones.”

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 156.

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1991. "Fluctuaciones del producto y choques monetarios: evidencia colombiana
    [Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Colombia]
    ," MPRA Paper 13654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  3. Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "A Note on the Baxter-King Filter," Working Papers 9813, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003549, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "Monetary Regime Choices for a Semi-Open Country," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-036, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
  9. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002164, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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