Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen
[Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]
This paper presents a univariate model that analyzes systematic changes in the behavior of the business cycle in the Dominican Republic, capturing changes in average growth and identifying differences between contractions and expansions with respect to their persistence and duration. To do so, it uses the classic algorithm described by Hamilton (1990, 1991) that consists of two parts. In the first part, population parameters, including joint probability density of unobserved states, are estimated. In the second part, using a nonlinear filter and smoothed probabilities, probabilistic inferences are made about unobserved states. Our results suggest that the characteristics of the distribution functions estimated for each scheme differ, both in mean and standard deviation. Thus, for a recessive event or contraction, average quarterly growth was around -0.33% with a standard deviation of 0.45%, whereas for an expanding statistical event, estimates were 0.23% and 0.27%, respectively.
|Date of creation:||30 Jun 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, October.
- Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
- Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998.
"Business cycle durations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
- McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1998. "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 188-201, May.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1993.
"Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
- Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2000.
"Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions,"
Economics Series Working Papers
2000-W32, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
- Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1991. "A Quasi-Bayesian Approach to Estimating Parameters for Mixtures of Normal Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-39, January.
- Filardo, Andrew J, 1994.
"Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Filardo JBES 1994 paper with time-varying Markov switching," Statistical Software Components RTZ00059, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
- Christian A. Johnson, 2000.
"Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
84, Central Bank of Chile.
- Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.