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Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile

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  • Christian Johnson

Abstract

This article presents a historical analysis of the Chilean monthly growth rate from 1987 to 2000, applying the Switching Regime methodology design by Hamilton (1989). Three scenarios were considered, which imply a number of parameters estimated using the

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:38:y:2001:i:115:p:291-319
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/115johna.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 39-70.
    3. Rodrigo Valdés, 1998. "Efectos de la Política Monetaria en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 97-125.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1991. "A Quasi-Bayesian Approach to Estimating Parameters for Mixtures of Normal Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-39, January.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., pages 79-101.
    2. Byron Idrovo A., 2010. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
    3. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen
      [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]
      ," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana
      [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]
      ," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007.
    5. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Contreras, Javier, 2009. "Un Modelo SARIMA para Predecir la Tasa de Desempleo de Chile
      [A model SARIMA to predict chilean unemployment]
      ," MPRA Paper 19369, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Sep 2009.
    6. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2007. "Los Ciclos del Mercado Inmobiliario y su Relación con los Ciclos de la Economía
      [Housing Market Fluctuations and the Economic Cycles]
      ," MPRA Paper 19365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Sep 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; monetary policy; algorithm EM; optimization;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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