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¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta

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  • Byron Idrovo A.

Abstract

El objetivo del presente estudio es estimar la tasa de crecimiento de la economía en uncontexto de plena utilización de los recursos productivos. Se emplean para el análisismodelos univariados de series de tiempo, incluyendo una tendencia determinística (conquiebres de medias), y un modelo de estado-espacio que considera una tendenciaestocástica y un componente cíclico, estimado por Filtro de Kalman. El componentecíclico es calculado con y sin cambios de régimen (Markov-switching models), de acuerdocon la idea de Friedman (1993) -plucking model. Los resultados indican que la tasa decrecimiento potencial de la economía chilena sería superior al 4% anual, acompanada deciclos económicos asimétricos.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron Idrovo A., 2010. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:007831
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
    2. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    3. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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    1. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Contreras, Javier, 2015. "Back-splicing of cement production and characterization of its economic cycle: The case of Chile (1991-2015)," MPRA Paper 67387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2015.
    2. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2019. "Backcasting cement production and characterizing cement’s economic cycles for Chile 1991–2015," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1829-1852, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclos; crecimiento de tendencia; filtro de Kalman; Chile.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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