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¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta

Author

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  • Byron Idrovo A.

Abstract

El objetivo del presente estudio es estimar la tasa de crecimiento de la economía en uncontexto de plena utilización de los recursos productivos. Se emplean para el análisismodelos univariados de series de tiempo, incluyendo una tendencia determinística (conquiebres de medias), y un modelo de estado-espacio que considera una tendenciaestocástica y un componente cíclico, estimado por Filtro de Kalman. El componentecíclico es calculado con y sin cambios de régimen (Markov-switching models), de acuerdocon la idea de Friedman (1993) -plucking model. Los resultados indican que la tasa decrecimiento potencial de la economía chilena sería superior al 4% anual, acompanada deciclos económicos asimétricos.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron Idrovo A., 2010. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:007831
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    File URL: http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/media/files/documentos/Cuadernos/53/v29n53_idrovo.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2019. "Backcasting cement production and characterizing cement’s economic cycles for Chile 1991–2015," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1829-1852, November.
    2. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Contreras, Javier, 2015. "Back-splicing of cement production and characterization of its economic cycle: The case of Chile (1991-2015)," MPRA Paper 67387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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