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¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta

  • Byron Idrovo A.

    ()

El objetivo del presente estudio es estimar la tasa de crecimiento de la economía en uncontexto de plena utilización de los recursos productivos. Se emplean para el análisismodelos univariados de series de tiempo, incluyendo una tendencia determinística (conquiebres de medias), y un modelo de estado-espacio que considera una tendenciaestocástica y un componente cíclico, estimado por Filtro de Kalman. El componentecíclico es calculado con y sin cambios de régimen (Markov-switching models), de acuerdocon la idea de Friedman (1993) -plucking model. Los resultados indican que la tasa decrecimiento potencial de la economía chilena sería superior al 4% anual, acompañada deciclos económicos asimétricos.

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File URL: http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/media/files/documentos/Cuadernos/53/v29n53_idrovo.pdf
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Article provided by UN - RCE - CID in its journal REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000093:007831
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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  2. Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 84, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
  4. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
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