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The credit channel in U.S. economic history

Listed author(s):
  • Hendricks, Torben W.
  • Kempa, Bernd

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the credit channel as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy in 20th century economic history by applying a Markov-switching model on the default premium of U.S. corporate bond portfolios. Beside the stance of monetary policy and the state of the business cycle, we identify a latent factor accounting for the strength of the credit channel. In particular, the credit channel appears to be active only in periods of financial distress, most notably during the Great Depression and the 1980s Savings and Loan debacle.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 58-68

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:58-68
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1992. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 92-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  8. Oliner, Stephen D & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 300-309, March.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  10. Bean, Charles & Larsen, Jens D. J. & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory, evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 0113, European Central Bank.
  11. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Michael Ehrmann & Andrea Generale & Jorge Martínez-Pagés & Philip Vermeulen & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: New Evidence From Micro Data on Firms and Banks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 731-742, 04/05.
  12. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1993. " The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 43-64.
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  14. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Monetary shocks, agency costs, and business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-27, June.
  15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 3400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Majumder, Debasish, 2006. "Inefficient markets and credit risk modeling: Why Merton's model failed," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 307-318, April.
  18. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
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  20. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Ulf Von Kalckreuth, 2003. "New Findings on Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00119490, HAL.
  21. Brimmer, Andrew F, 1989. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Central Banking and Systemic Risks in Capital Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 3-16, Spring.
  22. Slovin, Myron B & Sushka, Marie E & Polonchek, John A, 1993. " The Value of Bank Durability: Borrowers as Bank Stakeholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 247-266, March.
  23. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 146, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 310-314, March.
  25. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  26. John B. Shoven & Scott B. Smart & Joel Waldfogel, 1992. "Real Interest Rates and the Savings and Loan Crisis: The Moral Hazard Premium," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 155-167, Winter.
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  28. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2003. "New Findings on Firm Investment and Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 73-83.
  29. Honda, Yuzo, 2004. "Bank capital regulations and the transmission mechanism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 675-688, September.
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