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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

  • Angélica María Arosemena

En relación con los síntomas que probablemente tendrá la actividad económica en el futuro, un aumento en el spread de tasas de interés reduce la probabilidad de tener momentos dificiles mas adelante. Este resultado se cumple para un período 12 y 24 meses adelante y se ajusta al modelo teórico utilizado. La inclusión de variables monetarias en el modelo empírico no afecta la significancia estadística ni los signos del spread ni del diferencial de inflación. Sin embargo, el crecimiento monetario también contiene información sobre el ambiente económico futuro.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 279.

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