The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan
Many studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread\the difference between long- and short-term interest rates\has information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to monetary policy or not by using Japanese monthly data with consideration for structural changes. Results of structural change tests show that the term spread has predictive ability for the future economic activity from 1982:4 to 1997:8. Decomposing the term spread into three parts; one is explained by past monetary policy shocks, another is explained by expected future call rates and the other is the remaining part, we find that all three parts are significantly related to the future economic growth rate. Hence, we find that the monetary policy plays an important role for the LIPTS.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
- Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hideaki Hirata & Kazuo Ueda, 1998.
"The Yield Spread as a Predictor of Japanese Recessions,"
164501, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Hideaki Hirata & Kazuo Ueda, 1998. "The Yield Spread as a Predictor of Japanese Recessions," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
- Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007.
"Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions,"
Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, 03.
- Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996.
"Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence,"
BIS Working Papers
37, Bank for International Settlements.
- Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
- Bernard, Henri J & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007.
"Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread,"
Working Paper Series
0802, European Central Bank.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
- Masashi Hasegawa & Yuichi Fukuta, 2011. "An empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1865-1881.
- Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
- Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
- Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 2002. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 376-92, May.
- Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Georgios Karras, 1992.
"Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression,"
NBER Working Papers
4049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 80-102, February.
- Kurozumi, Eiji & Tuvaandorj, Purevdorj, 2011.
"Model selection criteria in multivariate models with multiple structural changes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 218-238, October.
- Eiji Kurozumi & Purevdorj Tuvaandorj, 2010. "Model Selection Criteria in Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-144, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 781-806, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1309r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Atsuko SUZUKI)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.