Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries
The difference in yields between long-term and short-term securities has been used both as a business cycle leading indicator and as an indicator of the current impact of monetary policy. This paper tests for an asymmetry, in the form of a threshold effect, such that the impact of the yield spread on output is greater on one side of the threshold than the other. The test allows for an unknown threshold, and the asymptotic distribution of the resulting statistic is obtained by the method of Hansen (1996). We test using data from each of the G-7 countries, and find that, while the yield spread does generally show a signifcant link with output, only in the U.S. and Canada is there strong evidence of an asymmetry of this type. The evidence of asymmetry that we find suggests a high value of the threshold in both the U.S. and Canada.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-78, May.
- Galbraith, John W, 1996. "Credit Rationing and Threshold Effects in the Relation between Money and Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 419-29, July-Aug..
- M. A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary Policy And Long-Term Interest Rates: A Survey Of Empirical Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 110-130, 07.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1996. "Central banking in a democracy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-14.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Yash P. Mehra, 1996. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-49.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, .
"The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada,"
94-3, Bank of Canada.
- Donald P. Morgan, 1993. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 21-33.
- Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989.
"The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission,"
89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wesley Clair Mitchell & Arthur F. Burns, 1938. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc38-1, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:19:y:2000:i:5:p:657-672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.