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An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre--World War I and Interwar Periods

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  • Randall E. Parker
  • Philip Rothman

Abstract

We test whether monetary shocks had asymmetric output effects before World War II. Ball and Mankiw (1994) show that expectations of persistent inflation under fiat money can explain why negative monetary shocks had larger effects than positive shocks after World War II. Consistent with this explanation, we find such asymmetry in the interwar period following the abandonment of the gold standard and before it, when agents arguably anticipated this development. We find no monetary asymmetry before World War I, which is consistent with Ball and Mankiw (1994), because under a credible gold standard, agents do not expect persistent inflation. (JEL E31, ES2) Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall E. Parker & Philip Rothman, 2004. "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre--World War I and Interwar Periods," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 88-100, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:42:y:2004:i:1:p:88-100
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas C.S. Sim, 2009. "Modeling Quantile Dependence: A New Look at the Money-Output Relationship," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-34, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    2. Wolters Maik H. & Tillmann Peter, 2015. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 161-182, April.
    3. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    4. Q.Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim & Lucio Sarno, 2006. "Non-linear Dynamics in Output, Real Exchange Rates and Real Money Balances: Norway, 1830-2003," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 333-377, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Perez, Stephen J. & Siegler, Mark V., 2006. "Agricultural and monetary shocks before the great depression: A graph-theoretic causal investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 720-736, December.
    6. Phil Bodman, "undated". "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Irfan Ahmad Shah & Srikanta Kundu, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy: evidence from India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 243-277, January.
    8. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the U.S and Brazil," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    10. Fredrik N. G. Andersson, 2023. "The quest for economic stability: a study on Swedish stabilisation policies 1873–2019," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 128-156, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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