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Inflation changes, yield spreads, and threshold effects

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  • Tkacz, Greg

Abstract

Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models. Implementing a robust test to detect evidence of a threshold, we find that the hypothesis of linearity is generally rejected. For the United States, we find that the inflation-spread relationship at most horizons is more pronounced when the yield curve is inverted, which is usually associated with periods of tight monetary policy. This implies that monetary policy may have an asymmetric effect on inflation. Curiously, the pattern of asymmetry in Canada appears to operate in the opposite direction, with expansionary policies having a relatively greater impact on inflation than tighter policies.
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  • Tkacz, Greg, 2004. "Inflation changes, yield spreads, and threshold effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:13:y:2004:i:2:p:187-199
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    1. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting sectorial profitability and credit spreads using bond yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
    3. Yingying Xu & Chi-Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2021. "Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1175-1189, March.
    4. A. J. Khadaroo, 2005. "A threshold in inflation dynamics: evidence from emerging countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 719-723.
    5. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Firdous Ahmad Shah & Lokenath Debnath, 2017. "Wavelet Neural Network Model for Yield Spread Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    7. Mayank Gupta & Amit Pawar & Subrat Kumar Seet & S. Suraj, 2024. "Non-Linear Dynamics of Yield Spreads and Inflation: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(4), pages 809-822, December.
    8. Thi Kim Cuc Nguyen & Reza Yamora Siregar, 2013. "Inflationary Implication of Gold Price in Vietnam," CAMA Working Papers 2013-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    10. Huseyin Kaya & M. Ege Yazgan, 2011. "Has 'inflation targeting' increased the predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from Turkish experience?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(20), pages 1539-1547.
    11. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2008. "Linear and threshold forecasts of output and inflation using stock and housing prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 131-151.
    12. Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Gold Prices and Inflation," Staff Working Papers 07-35, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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